On the Predictability of Stock Market Prices

Saying that stock market prices are wholly unpredictable is like saying you went to a Sotheby's auction and you didn't know when people were raising their bids.

What I live for

I live for that moment where you feel you've finally 'gotten' something.

You figured it out... you might not have totally solved the problem yet, but you're on the way there and you can taste it. Finishing up is important, but is nearly a foregone conclusion once you've actually _clicked_

And you do that again, and again, and again, and again.

Nothing better.

Watches Feb 19, 2009

Please please please give me some more intraday range? Thank you Mr. Market.

LNC KRC URI PNX PAG CLP GAP BKD CSE HERO HOV SGY DPTR CPE MPG LVS MTG ALD TLB MTL XL RF MBI TEN GNW GBG UXG NSU OREX AMMD MTRX IWA

I'm hoping for some volatile ones tomorrow!

We'll see if I get my wish. For 2/17/2009:

AAV ACAS AIB AIV ALD ARNA BBND BC BPZ CBB CBG CBL CCO DHI DISK EGLE FR GIL GSIG GY HOV ICO KIM LNG LVS LYV MAC MAS MELA MTG MWA NARA OSK PL PLD QCOR SHO SIRF STI SWHC TEX UFS USU UXG VIP WYN YRCW ZLC

VWAP and $TICK

I like VWAP. I like $TICK. They help me figure out the structure of the marketplace as it makes moment to moment shifts.

This is ARNA today, 2/13/2009. This issue was trending down fairly strong off the open. Any aggressive moves back towards VWAP could have been aggressively faded. A strongly trending market, whether that is an individual security or a whole index will show an advancing/declining VWAP all day long and remain near its lows/highs of the day at close where, as you know, significant volume occurs.

February 12, 2009 showed a strong afternoon move off the lows of the day back towards and through VWAP, led by the financial sector. Notice the slight hesitation and pullback at VWAP before continuance of the strong upmove. Prior to this afternoon influx of volume, FAS had difficulties holding VWAP off the open on weak selling and the financial sector helped lead the market to new lows before it found significant and aggressive buyers.


Today, February 13, 2009 was a much more range-bound market as evinced by SPY action around VWAP and the boring $TICK.

pretty huh?

and here is the opposite situation from ARNA - BPZ on 2/13/2009

Why I Don't Post Performance Results on Here Anymore

Just too much pressure. This guy agrees with me.

Also, it takes way too much time! I already 'journal' most of my trades in a certain sense so it is not hugely useful that way either.

But I do find it easier to trade when I don't really think about whether I am going to posting good results for the month. Lately I am just focused on hitting my current daily profit target, which is ~1.04% of my total trading capital, and hitting my weekly target, which is ~2.59% of my total trading capital. This may sound like an absurdly high goal, but could actually be a quite modest daily profit target for a savvy and experienced short term market participant that isn't working with a particularly large amount of capital (few million $ or less).

Every single day is a new day. How are you going to hit your target, today?

Focus is what I need. Just me and the goal for the moment.

Zecco Pretty Much No Free Commissions anymore

Logged into my Zecco account today to make a trade... here's what I saw.

Dear Zecco Trading Customers:

I'm writing to tell you that as of March 1st, 2009, we're increasing the minimum level of assets needed to earn 10 free trades per month to $25,000. We're also adding a new way to get free trades: customers who make at least 25 total trades per month will also qualify for 10 free stock trades per month.

Additionally, as of March 1st, 2009, you'll be able to earn $75 for each friend referred to Zecco Trading through our Zecco Friends Program. You can use that cash to offset trade commissions or make new investments.

Why was this necessary now? Anyone who’s read a newspaper lately knows that the US and world economies have been hit hard over the past 4 months. As a result, some of the largest corporations in the world have had to cut costs and adjust to new business realities. With reduced retail trading volumes and lower interest rates, we at Zecco Trading simply could no longer provide free trades to as many people as we would like.

Many customers will not be affected by this change. For those of you who are impacted, I want you to know that I understand this is disappointing news. Since our founding, our goal has always been to provide a great value to online investors, and we've always made free stock trading part of that. And while we continue to provide some of the lowest trade commissions of all leading online brokerages at $4.50 each, we understand that nobody likes to pay for something that was previously free.

I'd like to emphasize that we are continuing to invest in our customer service and trading platform. You may have already noticed the improvements within our customer service team. We'll also be upgrading to an entirely new trading platform later in 2009. This new platform will improve reliability as well as introduce advanced order types, enhanced options trading capabilities, online bond trading, better account management, single-step login, and a faster website.

So how can you qualify for free stock trades? There are two simple ways to do it:

1. Keep $25,000 in net assets in your account. This doesn't have to be cash -- it can be stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, options, or other assets.
2. Make 25 total trades in a calendar month. These can be stock, ETF, or options trades. And yes, free trades count.

For more qualification details, visit: http://www.zecco.com/trading/newpricing.aspx

As mentioned above, as of March 1st, 2009 you'll also be able to earn $75 for each friend referred to Zecco Trading. You must refer your friend through our Zecco Friends Program, and your friend must open and fund their Zecco Trading account with at least $500. See program details here.

Thank you for your loyalty to Zecco Trading. We intend to continue earning your business as the best value for online investors.

Jeroen Veth
Founder and CEO
Zecco Holdings, Inc

Hah! Zero Cost Commission (Zecco) broker my ass! Unsustainable business model apparently... it reflects in the customer service.

'Trade Your Mind' Skype trading chat - courtesy of oulous

so my former daytrading chatroom seems to be going somewhat to the wayside...

However, I have found an excellent new outlet via a public Skype chatroom hosted by the trader oulous. You can find me on Skype by searching for 'mhjacks'.

The chatroom can only be joined by a current member inviting you in; if you would like to join please message me on Skype. (my skype handle is mhjacks)

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