- me, 2005-ish
Saying that stock market prices are wholly unpredictable is like saying you went to a Sotheby's auction and you didn't know when people were raising their bids.
I live for that moment where you feel you've finally 'gotten' something.
You figured it out... you might not have totally solved the problem yet, but you're on the way there and you can taste it. Finishing up is important, but is nearly a foregone conclusion once you've actually _clicked_
And you do that again, and again, and again, and again.
Please please please give me some more intraday range? Thank you Mr. Market.
LNC KRC URI PNX PAG CLP GAP BKD CSE HERO HOV SGY DPTR CPE MPG LVS MTG ALD TLB MTL XL RF MBI TEN GNW GBG UXG NSU OREX AMMD MTRX IWA
We'll see if I get my wish. For 2/17/2009:
AAV ACAS AIB AIV ALD ARNA BBND BC BPZ CBB CBG CBL CCO DHI DISK EGLE FR GIL GSIG GY HOV ICO KIM LNG LVS LYV MAC MAS MELA MTG MWA NARA OSK PL PLD QCOR SHO SIRF STI SWHC TEX UFS USU UXG VIP WYN YRCW ZLC
I like VWAP. I like $TICK. They help me figure out the structure of the marketplace as it makes moment to moment shifts.
This is ARNA today, 2/13/2009. This issue was trending down fairly strong off the open. Any aggressive moves back towards VWAP could have been aggressively faded. A strongly trending market, whether that is an individual security or a whole index will show an advancing/declining VWAP all day long and remain near its lows/highs of the day at close where, as you know, significant volume occurs.
February 12, 2009 showed a strong afternoon move off the lows of the day back towards and through VWAP, led by the financial sector. Notice the slight hesitation and pullback at VWAP before continuance of the strong upmove. Prior to this afternoon influx of volume, FAS had difficulties holding VWAP off the open on weak selling and the financial sector helped lead the market to new lows before it found significant and aggressive buyers.
Today, February 13, 2009 was a much more range-bound market as evinced by SPY action around VWAP and the boring $TICK.
and here is the opposite situation from ARNA - BPZ on 2/13/2009
Just too much pressure. This guy agrees with me.
Also, it takes way too much time! I already 'journal' most of my trades in a certain sense so it is not hugely useful that way either.
But I do find it easier to trade when I don't really think about whether I am going to posting good results for the month. Lately I am just focused on hitting my current daily profit target, which is ~1.04% of my total trading capital, and hitting my weekly target, which is ~2.59% of my total trading capital. This may sound like an absurdly high goal, but could actually be a quite modest daily profit target for a savvy and experienced short term market participant that isn't working with a particularly large amount of capital (few million $ or less).
Every single day is a new day. How are you going to hit your target, today?
Focus is what I need. Just me and the goal for the moment.